WASHINGTON, D.C.—AAA initiatives 45.1 million individuals will journey at the very least 50 miles from house over the Memorial Day vacation interval from Thursday, Might 22, to Monday, Might 26. This yr’s home journey forecast is a rise of 1.4 million vacationers in comparison with final yr and units a brand new Memorial Day weekend report. The earlier report was set again in 2005 with 44 million individuals. Regardless of issues over rising costs, many People say they’re profiting from the lengthy vacation weekend to spend time with family members, even when the journeys are nearer to house.
“Memorial Day weekend getaways don’t should be extravagant and dear,” mentioned Stacey Barber, vp of AAA Journey. “Whereas some vacationers embark on dream holidays and fly lots of of miles throughout the nation, many households simply pack up the automotive and drive to the seaside or take a street journey to go to buddies. Lengthy vacation weekends are perfect for journey as a result of many individuals have an additional break day work and college students are off from college.”
Memorial Day Vacationers by Mode of Transportation
By Automotive: AAA initiatives 39.4 million individuals will journey by automotive over Memorial Day weekend. That’s a further a million vacationers in comparison with final yr. Driving is the popular mode of transportation throughout vacation journey durations, with 87 p.c of Memorial Day vacationers selecting to take street journeys. This yr, drivers benefit from cheaper gasoline costs. Final Memorial Day, the nationwide common for a gallon of normal was $3.59. This spring, because of decrease crude oil costs, gasoline costs haven’t seen typical seasonal spikes. With the unofficial begin of summer season kicking off the busy driving season, demand is predicted to rise, and pump costs could creep up together with it. Fuel costs usually peak in the summertime and begin coming down when colleges return in session within the fall.
For drivers who’re renting vehicles over Memorial Day weekend, AAA automotive rental accomplice Hertz says Friday, Might 23, is predicted to be the busiest day for pickup. Hertz says the cities seeing the best demand for rental vehicles embody Orlando, Denver, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Miami, and Seattle.
By Air: Airports are bracing for an additional bustling vacation weekend. AAA initiatives 3.61 million air passengers, an almost 2 p.c enhance over final yr when 3.55 million vacationers took to the skies. Whereas this Memorial Day weekend isn’t anticipated to set an air journey report (that was set again in 2005 with 3.64 million vacationers), this yr’s numbers are projected to surpass pre-pandemic ranges by 12 p.c. AAA reserving knowledge (primarily based on what vacationers paid when reserving Memorial Day weekend flights) reveals home flights are 2 p.c dearer in comparison with final yr, with the typical round-trip ticket costing $850. Most of these flights are to well-liked locations like Chicago, New York, Orlando, Denver, and Seattle.
By Different Modes: Journey by different modes continues to steadily rise post-pandemic. AAA initiatives 2.08 million individuals will journey by prepare, bus, or cruise over Memorial Day weekend, an 8.5 p.c enhance over final yr. This class is now surpassing pre-pandemic numbers from 2018 and 2019, however doesn’t attain the report numbers of the early 2000s, when extra individuals had been selecting trains and buses submit 9/11.
Cruising’s rising recognition is highlighted by the sturdy demand for Alaska cruises this season. Prime home cruise locations for Memorial Day weekend embody Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Juneau. Total, vacationers are turning to cruises in report numbers. Earlier this yr, AAA projected {that a} report 19 million People deliberate to take cruises in 2025.
Vacation Forecast Methodology
Journey Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P International Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a novel methodology to forecast precise home journey volumes. The financial variables used to forecast journey for the present vacation are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These knowledge embody macroeconomic drivers akin to employment, output, family internet value, asset costs together with inventory indices, rates of interest, housing market indicators, and variables associated to journey and tourism, together with gasoline costs, airline journey, and lodge stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified vacation journey volumes going again to 2000.
Historic journey quantity estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a complete examine measuring the journey conduct of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households every month to acquire detailed journey knowledge, ensuing within the distinctive skill to estimate customer quantity and spending, determine traits, forecast U.S. journey conduct, and place model, all after the journeys have been taken.
The journey forecast is reported in person-trips. Particularly, AAA and SPGMI forecast the entire U.S. vacation journey quantity and anticipated mode of transportation. The journey forecast offered on this report was ready the week of April 14, 2025.
As a result of AAA vacation forecasts deal with home leisure journey solely, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers shouldn’t be made. TSA knowledge contains all passengers touring on each home and worldwide routes, whether or not touring for work or leisure. Moreover, TSA screens passengers every time they enter secured areas of the airport, subsequently, every one-way journey is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which embody the complete round-trip journey itinerary. Because of this, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and day by day TSA screenings characterize various factors.