ARLINGTON, Virginia—CoStar and Tourism Economics additional downgraded progress projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. lodge forecast simply launched on the seventeenth Annual Lodge Knowledge Convention.
Given continued underperformance and elevated macroeconomic issues, forecasted progress charges had been lowered throughout the top-line metrics: demand (down 0.6 share factors), ADR (down 0.5 share factors), and RevPAR (down 1.1 share factors).
Comparable changes had been made for 2026: demand (down 0.5 share factors), ADR (down 0.3 share factors), and RevPAR (down 0.7 share factors).
“Unrelenting uncertainty and inflation, coupled with powerful calendar comps and altering journey patterns, have triggered decrease demand,” mentioned Amanda Hite, STR president. “Moreover, because the yr has unfolded, we’ve seen price progress converge nearer with demand. We count on little change within the financial outlook over the subsequent 18 months, however we’re optimistic that when commerce talks have concluded and the impression of the price range reconciliation invoice involves fruition, lodge efficiency will get better.”
“The slowing U.S. economic system ought to take in the consequences of tariffs with out tipping right into a recession,” mentioned Aran Ryan, director of trade research at Tourism Economics. “The present surroundings—characterised by slowing shopper spending, decreased enterprise capital spending, and declining worldwide visitation—will transition to at least one boosted reasonably by tax cuts and fewer coverage uncertainty as we glance to 2026.”
“Whereas our GOPPAR forecast stays unchanged from the earlier revision, GOP margins had been revised down 0.3 share factors for 2025 and a pair of.3 share factors for 2026, primarily on account of a possible enhance in bills, significantly F&B,” Hite mentioned.