Final yr’s attendance statistics have been launched by the TEA, reflecting an increase for Walt Disney World (albeit a really modest one) and a deepening decline for Common Orlando forward of Epic Universe. This appears to be like on the winners & losers because the restoration to 2019 ranges continues, with commentary about adjustments at WDW, UOR, Disneyland, and the worldwide theme parks.
For starters, the 2024 International Points of interest Attendance Report is a collaboration of the Themed Leisure Affiliation (TEA) and the economics follow at AECOM. Prime worldwide theme parks, amusement parks, water parks, museums, and theme park operators are named, ranked by attendance, and business developments are recognized.
The International Points of interest Attendance Report is taken into account the gold customary throughout the theme park business, and TEA is very credible. Whereas I can not communicate to Common’s view on TEA, I can verify with full certainty that the Walt Disney Firm views the International Points of interest Attendance Report as credible and correct. Suffice to say, the numbers for all Disney parks besides these in Tokyo ought to be proper on the cash. (Tokyo’s numbers are additionally correct, albeit for a special motive: OLC stories them immediately in public filings.)
Nonetheless, the TEA attendance report does include asterisks. Not like Tokyo Disney Resort, Common Orlando and Walt Disney World don’t launch attendance statistics as a part of their earnings or annual reporting. There’s a complete ‘methodology’ part beginning on web page 78 of the report, which states:
“Our researchers derive the figures used to create the TEA International Expertise Index via a wide range of sources, together with statistics furnished immediately by the operators, historic numbers, monetary stories, native tourism organizations, nationwide and worldwide attraction associations, cell location analytics {and professional} estimates the place needed.”
The report goes on to elucidate why most theme park operators voluntarily present statistics to TEA, and addresses skepticism about inflating or in any other case manipulating statistics. There has lengthy been fan cynicism about each Common Orlando and Walt Disney World doing exactly this over time.
Nonetheless, we doubt that’s taking place right here for quite a few causes (additionally defined on pages 78-79). The report factors out that misreporting or over-reporting creates issues for the operators in each the lengthy and quick time period. “Within the close to time period, if attendance is up however revenues or profitability usually are not, it raises questions. In the long run, finally, they’ll hit a degree the place the numbers are too far off to be credible.” TEA makes the case within the worth of correct statistics for the well being of the business, and we imagine this to be a persuasive and compelling one.
That is fully correct. Anybody who listens to Disney earnings calls is aware of that the important thing metric with which the corporate is outright obsessed is per capita or guesting spending. That issues far more to Wall Avenue than attendance, therefore Disney’s previous notorious assertion about an “unfavorable attendance combine.” You recognize what decreases per capita spending? Mendacity about larger attendance!
The income is what it’s. So if Walt Disney World had been to say larger attendance than the parks are literally seeing, it could lower per caps. Which means, if something, Disney and Common are literally incentivized to underreport–not overreport–attendance. Disney’s dream state of affairs is attaining record-setting income with just a few thousand friends per day and everybody making it rain on VIP Excursions and Lightning Lane Premier Move.
It’s the fan perspective that’s fixated on crowd ranges and attendance. These numbers matter to the businesses for the sake of the long-term well being of the companies, visitor satisfaction, and different metrics. However they produce other metrics that matter extra, and their concentrate on these provides credibility to this report, versus calling it into query.
For that and quite a lot of different causes, we imagine that numbers for each Walt Disney World and Common Orlando are correct. They had been appropriate two years in the past when the outcomes had been higher for Common, and proper the final two years when extra favorable for Disney. They’ll be correct once more subsequent yr when Common Orlando exhibits general features due to Epic Universe. When you solely imagine the outcomes once they let you know what you wish to hear, that claims extra about you than the report.
With that preface out of the way in which, right here’s a have a look at the Prime 25 Theme Parks Worldwide:
Right here’s the TEA evaluation of the information:
The worldwide sights panorama noticed a return to steady development in 2024, as journey and tourism patterns leveled out to roughly pre-pandemic numbers. The mixed attendance of the highest 25 theme parks globally grew 2.4% in 2024 to nearly 246 million. Basically, the main parks within the mature markets of the U.S., Japan, and western Europe noticed flat to modest adjustments in attendance, whereas the main internationally branded parks in China noticed notable continued development and registered document years.
The world’s prime water parks collectively noticed lower than 1% improve in attendance, although particular person outcomes different extensively by area, largely impacted by native market circumstances reminiscent of climate and tourism.
On the museum entrance, China continued its fast rise as a dominant pressure on the worldwide charts. 14 of the highest 20 museums at the moment are situated in China. China’s nationwide prioritization of and funding in cultural establishments like museums, mixed with low-cost admissions and enormous inhabitants facilities has helped gasoline this main shift out there.
For reference, right here’s a glance again no less than yr’s TEA stats:
Turning to evaluation, we wish to begin by directing your consideration to the declines for Disneyland Paris and the Walt Disney Studios Park. Right here’s the TEA evaluation:
Disneyland Park in France once more led the European rankings, although each Disneyland Park and second-gate Walt Disney Studios Park noticed a 1.8% decline in attendance. The parks had been impacted by the Paris 2024 Summer time Olympics, which raised resort charges and shifted customer consideration in the course of the peak summer season months.
This matches statements from Disney’s earnings calls, which attributed the decline to the Olympics. There have been additionally numerous media stories of an identical dynamic all through Paris, because the Olympics sucked up all the oxygen within the metropolis.
We’d additionally word that the Disneyland Paris thirtieth Anniversary celebration resulted in September 2023, so a tricky comparability to that in all probability contributed to the decline (albeit solely barely, since that occasion began in Spring 2022). Then there’s additionally the truth that the second gate has been a development zone for some time now. We’d count on 2025-2026 attendance to extend at each.
Nonetheless, the rationale we’re drawing consideration to it is because we’ve heard from numerous Disney followers questioning what Disneyland goes to complete “in time for” the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. The prevailing assumption is that Disney will need as a lot as attainable to open by then, capitalizing on that enhance in enterprise.
This could recommend the alternative is true–and that the Olympics are a drag on tourism versus a driver of it. And in reality, that is kind of the consensus view. What we’ve noticed with Paris and different host cities/nations is that the Olympics act as advertising and marketing for future visits, a catalyst for a tourism growth within the years that comply with–not in the course of the occasions.
Accordingly, the higher query is what Disneyland may have completed in 2029-2030, when the free publicity from the Olympics begins paying dividends for California. (You possibly can argue that the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics shall be completely different as a result of Disneyland is an American establishment that’s extra carefully related to the U.S. than Disneyland Paris–the cultural chernobyl–is with France. And thus, Disneyland shall be a better precedence for extra worldwide vacationers coming to California. However I nonetheless don’t assume Disney goes to fast-track something for the LA Olympics.)
Frankly, I’m not totally certain I agree with TEA’s evaluation that separates mature markets in Asia from China and asserts that the previous is flat whereas the latter is rising.
On the contrary, it could be my rivalry that regional proportion adjustments are largely pushed by the surroundings in the previous few years. The biggest jumps in year-over-year figures as soon as once more got here out of parks in Asia, which had essentially the most restrictive working environments previous to 2023.
The place the respective parks had been within the cycle of pent-up demand issues loads–had been they nonetheless driving the wave, or had it receded? From the whole lot I’ve seen–and this extends to journey & tourism developments extra broadly–Japan and China are each nonetheless driving that wave, particularly relating to worldwide visitation (an ever-increasing slice of the pie).
Japan has been smashing via annual inbound traveler numbers. Right here’s a headline from simply final week: Japan tops 31 mil. guests in Jan.-Sept., surpasses 30 mil. at document tempo. I’ve misplaced rely of what number of stories alongside these traces I’ve seen. There are newly headlines like this each single month, on account of Japan persevering with to interrupt its month-to-month information…all of which had been simply set final yr.
There’s just one outlier there, and it’s Common Studios Japan, the #3 theme park on the earth. Don’t get me improper, I like USJ, however that park ought to not be the #3 most-attended park on the earth primarily based on capability. The probably causes it didn’t improve year-over-year was as a result of it was already bursting on the seams, made a powerful comeback post-COVID due to Annual Move gross sales (which nonetheless usually are not obtainable at TDR), and Tremendous Nintendo World is now just a few years outdated (and Mine-Cart Insanity didn’t debut till late final yr).
The truth that USJ has held regular in circumstances considerably just like Common Studios Hollywood is a small miracle. I might wager on development once more in 2025 with Donkey Kong Nation now being open for a full yr.
The flip aspect of that is that the remainder of the world’s theme parks are principally underperforming is as a result of they reopened and recovered earlier, and at the moment are seeing their waves of revenge journey receding.
That creates unfavorable comparisons, which has made overperformance within the final couple of years tough, even with Walt Disney World and different operators pulling numerous “levers” to entice friends to return. Nonetheless, initiatives like higher discounting, return of Annual Passes, particular occasions, and the opening of recent sights are all examples of how among the parks have managed to eek out features.
To that time, let’s slim these numbers to North America, right here’s the Prime 20:
Magic Kingdom remained prime canine of theme parks—not simply #1 at Walt Disney World, however in your complete world.
Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless down as in comparison with 2019, when the park reached a staggering 20.96 million friends. That continues to be the excessive water mark for attendance, and it in all probability gained’t be reached once more till Vehicles land opens in 2029.
On the different finish of the spectrum, Animal Kingdom continues to underperform because the #4 park at Walt Disney World with 8.8 million friends. That’s down significantly from the 13.9 million friends it hit in 2019. It nonetheless astounds us that Disney waited so lengthy to develop post-Pandora, and that the one factor introduced so far is Tropical Americas. That’ll give DAK a lift, nevertheless it’s no Pandora. I’d count on even worse outcomes for Animal Kingdom in 2025-2026, however then once more, I anticipated these to be evident within the 2024 attendance figures.
EPCOT is as soon as once more within the #2 spot of Walt Disney World parks, having handed Disney’s Hollywood Studios in 2023 when it had a large 19.8% attendance improve to be the #1 rising home Disney park. That’s as soon as once more the case for 2024, albeit with only one.3% development.
Each different home Disney park noticed features of lower than 1%. This comports with what Disney CEO Bob Iger and CFO Hugh Johnston have stated on a number of earnings calls over the past year-plus, once they have repeatedly advised that attendance has been principally flat. Progress of 0.3 to 1.3% development just about epitomizes “principally flat.”
General, the home Disney parks maintained their market-leading place regardless of elevated competitors, with U.S. theme parks contributing 76.5 million in complete attendance in 2024, a 0.6% improve over 2023. On the monetary aspect, the expansion driver got here from a 5% improve in per-capita ticket income. Thanks, Lightning Lane Premier Move!
As famous above, attendance is down just about throughout the board as in comparison with the 2019 report. EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are the 2 parks that come the closest, nevertheless it doesn’t seem to be both will surpass these excessive water marks anytime quickly.
That’s particularly probably with none main additions till 2028 for Disney’s Hollywood Studios and ??? for EPCOT. Truthfully, although, possibly EPCOT can get away with the singles and doubles strategy. Check Monitor 3.0 has exceeded my expectations by way of recognition, and it’s attainable that Soarin’ Throughout America and the enhancements coming to Frozen Ever After and Remy’s Ratatouille Journey might provide related boosts in 2026. Then, who is aware of, possibly reimaginings of Spaceship Earth and/or Journey Into Creativeness in 2027-2028?!?! (Dare to dream.)
Walt Disney World appears to be okay with not hitting the 2019 excessive water mark for attendance. Not less than, for essentially the most half. As we famous above, per visitor spending is the corporate’s key metric they usually’ve achieved enviable outcomes there. However they’ve additionally supplied extra reductions over the past 18 months. A few of these, like Free Eating, really do improve per visitor spending. Others, just like the ticket offers, don’t.
Our place for some time has been that Disney Doesn’t Need Decrease Crowds. The title of the submit ought to give away our conclusion, however there’s actually extra nuance to it than that.
In actuality, the corporate needs to have its cake and eat it too: the intersection of upper visitor spending and larger attendance. Which means that if per visitor spending stats might be maximized similtaneously Magic Kingdom breaking the 20 million barrier, Disney would completely take each. That isn’t fairly attainable, so that they intention to string the needle and steadiness these needs.
Disney additionally wants to take care of a sure degree of visitor satisfaction. If what I’ve heard is correct, that took a reasonably noticeable hit on among the heaviest attendance days in 2019 (and not simply throughout peak weeks), which is one motive why Walt Disney World has eased again on the attendance accelerator and is now seeking to improve park capability–particularly in Magic Kingdom. However that’s one other matter for one more day.
Then there’s Common Orlando, which had one other tough yr in 2024. This was completely anticipated within the lead-up to Epic Universe.
Nonetheless, Common’s North American parks all misplaced attendance with Common Studios Florida dropping greater than 2.5%, Islands of Journey down 5.5%, and Common Studios Hollywood declining almost 10%. The final of those has seen a steep decline because it lapped Tremendous Nintendo World, which is the first clarification for that decline. That, and nothing new in 2024. (The Quick & Livid: Hollywood Drift curler coaster debuts in early 2026, in order that’ll probably be the subsequent yr for development at USH.)
On the monetary aspect, Common theme parks skilled an approximate 4% decline in income from 2023. This lower was primarily attributable to decrease park attendance and the opposed affect of overseas foreign money fluctuations.
The decline for Common Orlando in 2024 comes after a good greater lower in 2023. That yr, Islands of Journey was down 9.3% to 10 million friends whereas Common Studios Florida additionally fell 9.3% to 9.75 million friends.
The most effective clarification for 2 consecutive years of deep drops at Common Orlando is, fairly merely, that it bounce again greater and bolder than Walt Disney World in 2021-2022. With quicker features then, it’s not an enormous shock that there’s been a pullback and steeper drop since. And final yr (however not 2023), it’s additionally truthful to attribute some of the lower to followers suspending visits till Epic Universe opened.
For its half, Comcast attributed their (documented) slowdown on pent-up demand for different journey choices together with cruises and worldwide tourism, the energy of the greenback, and normalization post-pent-up demand. Common executives additionally conceded their decrease attendance to a lull in new attraction choices: “We haven’t launched a serious new attraction in Orlando since VelociCoaster in 2021, in anticipation of Epic Universe,” defined Jason Armstrong, Comcast’s CFO throughout one earnings name.
That is exactly why Common has been speaking about aggressive growth plans in any respect three of its Orlando theme parks. We already know that Rip Trip Rockit is being changed, and Common has wasted no time getting began on demolition of that. There are rumors that Springfield is subsequent on the chopping block, to get replaced by a Pokémon-themed space (though I’m skeptical). There’s in all probability extra to return at Common Studios Florida in 2026.
Extra seems poised to occur at Islands of Journey, as effectively. Final month, Common Orlando filed development permits to demolish a 5-acre portion of the Misplaced Continent island in that park, confirming that the realm is slated for alternative as rumors swirl about Zelda, Depraved, and different future prospects for that land.
Common wants to maneuver quick on these growth plans–and it seems there are. Nonetheless, it’s unlikely there’s something main debuting at Common Orlando in 2026. Their development technique shall be elevated capability at Epic Universe fueling general attendance features.
For no matter it’s price, we predicted that Common Orlando can be down once more in 2024. That was primarily based on a mixture of earnings calls, wait occasions information, and previous precedent. We additionally advised that Comcast might be completely high-quality with this, because it creates a juicy comparability that’ll be simple to blow out of the water as soon as Epic Universe opens.
It’ll be fascinating to see how attendance fares at Common Studios Florida and Islands of Journey as soon as Epic Universe opens. Traditionally, new gates have come on the quick time period expense of present ones–however Common has used a daring technique that largely bundled Epic Universe entry into multi-day packages that “pressure” friends to go to the legacy parks.
Truthfully, I don’t know what to anticipate with Common Orlando attendance in 2025. Throughout the board, complete visits will clearly be up. That’s what occurs when going from 2 parks to three parks. They didn’t drop $7 billion for stagnation’s sake. The true query, although, is simply how excessive Epic Universe attendance shall be and whether or not it’ll come on the expense of the legacy gates, or if that daring technique paid off and prevented cannibalization.
With out query, Epic Universe would be the lowest-attended Common or Disney theme park in 2025. That’ll be true just by advantage of it not working a full yr. It’ll be very tough for it to exceed the 5.7 million friends it’d must surpass the Walt Disney Studios Park.
Truthfully, I’d be very stunned if Epic Universe eclipses 5 million friends in 2025. A extra life like quantity might be round 4.5 million friends, which might come fairly near monitoring with leaked ticket gross sales information earlier than that was minimize off (whereas additionally assuming development for October via December). That’s a sturdy inaugural yr quantity. Something under 4 million can be a disappointment.
I don’t have any daring predictions for Islands of Journey or Common Studios Florida. Comcast hasn’t stated a lot about these parks of their earnings calls. The bundled ticket technique has maintained a ground beneath them. There nonetheless aren’t APs for Epic Universe, which retains locals visiting the legacy gates. However however, there was completely nothing new. I’d wager on very modest decreases–roughly 1% to three% for each parks.
The more severe numbers for Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida will in all probability are available in 2026 due to ticketing guidelines being relaxed for Epic Universe. Subsequent yr is when cannibalization shall be felt in full pressure, particularly if there’s nothing new to entice friends to go to USF and IoA.
Briefly, success for theme parks is fairly easy: in case you construct it, they’ll come.
Time and time once more, the TEA numbers have borne this out. Animal Kingdom noticed an identical explosion post-Pandora, whereas Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Toy Story Land had been huge for Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Final yr’s numbers for EPCOT inform an identical story, with the park lastly benefitting from Cosmic Rewind and the additions that got here earlier than it. In the meantime, Magic Kingdom noticed a modest enhance from TRON Lightcycle Run.
Equally as vital, the TEA report exhibits the reverse: when parks go too lengthy between opening new sights, their attendance suffers. In order for you one “narrative” to remove from these attendance statistics, that ought to be it! For one factor, it’s true. For one more, it’s the narrative that advantages us all and places us all on the identical “aspect” fairly than the limitless Common vs. Disney discourse that makes us all sound like bizarre cultists.
Most significantly, it’s the angle that encourages theme parks to take a position more cash into growth and opening new sights. We’re now seeing this play out in each California and Central Florida as Common and Disney make investments billions upon billions of {dollars} to draw new guests. No matter which aspect “wins” or “loses” within the quick time period, each win in the long run. Most significantly, followers all win!
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Your Ideas
What do you consider the TEA International Points of interest Attendance Report? Ideas on the outcomes for Common Orlando or Walt Disney World? Any coloration commentary of your personal so as to add? Do you agree or disagree with our assessments and forward-looking predictions? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions—even if you disagree with us—is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!