July 2025 has gotten off to a sluggish begin at Walt Disney World. For the third yr in a row, July 4th vacation weekend crowd ranges had been “surprisingly” low, and wait occasions haven’t picked up a lot since. This shares knowledge for the slowest days & weeks of the whole yr, and discusses causes for shorter strains throughout what was once a peak interval.
There have been headlines suggesting it is a “shock” or “stunning,” nevertheless it actually shouldn’t be. No weeks within the first half of July 2025 are on our Greatest & Worst Weeks at Walt Disney World in 2025-2026. In our Information to Independence Day 2025 at Walt Disney World, we equally started by indicating that the vacation weekend is now not really busy.
On the contrary, we acknowledged that it was a “near-certainty” that the vacation weekend wouldn’t be unhealthy. That it merely wouldn’t examine to 2019 or earlier, again when the parks had been really busy. We nonetheless anticipated increased crowd ranges than the final two years by advantage of the July 4th falling on a Friday and Walt Disney World providing attractive reductions versus overly aggressive blockouts. As a substitute, the vacation and past have been even slower than anticipated…
Suffice to say, the slower begin to the primary half of July 2025 was foreseeable, however to not this extent. Final month, we lined a few of the causes for this dynamic in Why Summer time is the New Low Crowds Season at Disney World. I’m not going to rehash all of that, however those self same causes apply equally to Independence Day. Right here’s a listing of fast hits for many who need the rundown:
- Epic Universe (negligible affect)
- Worldwide Journey Pullback (1% to 1.5% affect)
- Financial Uncertainty (no affect)
- Starlight Delays (no affect)
- Shifting Schedules (main affect)
- Excessive Warmth & Humidity (average to main affect)
- Shorter Park Hours (some affect)
- No Particular Occasions (some affect)
- Minimal Mitigation (some affect)
What this put up goes to handle is simply how low wait occasions have been within the first half of July 2025. Then we’re going to supply a number of extra explanations as to why this month–particularly Independence Day–has gotten slower at Disney.
As earlier than, any principle that may be contradicted by increased crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk. That means that increased costs, fewer perks, and the corporate’s status don’t clarify the decrease summer time crowds pattern. Figured this was value a reminder as Walt Disney World simply launched October by way of December reductions.
Not solely are the brand new reductions usually worse than final yr, however availability is much more restricted. Occupancy doesn’t equal attendance, nevertheless it’s certain trying prefer it’s going to be a powerful vacation season. This isn’t to say Walt Disney World doesn’t have a pricing downside. It does as we’ve mentioned in numerous posts, together with Is Walt Disney World Too Costly for Center Class Individuals? However pricing doesn’t clarify why summer time, specifically, continues to see its year-over-year wait occasions lower.
Anyway, let’s flip to the month-to-date wait occasions knowledge for July 2025, courtesy of thrill-data (ditto the above stats)…
July 2025 Wait Occasions
July has been the slowest month of the yr up to now, with a median wait time of 27 minutes and 1/10 crowd stage. Previous to this month, the slowest month of the yr was final month, when June had a median wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd stage of three/10. Within the final 12 months, the one slower months have been final September and October, which had been dragged down by hurricane scares.
The primary week of July has been the slowest of the year-to-date, with a 26 minute common and crowd stage of 1/10. This simply barely edged out mid-June (27 minutes, 1/10). The final week of June continues to be the busiest of summer time, and is unlikely to be surpassed within the second half of July and August 2025, primarily based on each present tendencies and previous precedent. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer time journey, and you’ll most likely count on one thing related in Summer time 2026.
As all the time, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are attainable for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights. There have additionally been loads of days which were busier than that common.
On the “increased” finish of the spectrum, July 8-10 had 30-32 minute waits for 3/10 to 4/10 crowd ranges. In contrast, July 2-6 has been the slowest stretch of the month-to-date, with wait occasions bottoming out at 21 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding 26 minutes (on common) for that stretch. Sunday, July 6 has been the slowest day of the whole yr to this point. (If historical past is any indication, it’ll be surpassed in mid-August.)
Not all parks had been equally uncrowded over Independence Day. As is all the time the case, Magic Kingdom and EPCOT overperformed. These two parks being busiest is especially unsurprising since they’re the one two with particular Fourth of July fireworks exhibits.
If something, wait occasions knowledge from these two parks doesn’t inform the total story of ‘seems like’ crowds as a result of individuals are staking out prime spots for fireworks and simply usually having fun with the patriotic ambiance. This can be a story that’ll repeat itself over the approaching months at Magic Kingdom within the evenings as soon as Starlight debuts–large congestion alongside the parade route, however walk-on rides.
Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios had been sluggish by any subjective or goal measure. Animal Kingdom had its lowest common wait time–23 minutes–of the yr on July 4, 2025. Hollywood Studios had a median wait time of twenty-two minutes on each July 3 and July 6, which is extraordinarily low for DHS. It’s often the park with the best common wait occasions at Walt Disney World!
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. This can be a pattern that’s a number of years working, however is amplified throughout summer time and minimized as soon as Celebration Season begins. If we’re taking a look at trend-lines, the drop from June to July 2025 has been the largest of the whole yr to date. June barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each instances).
The drop-off from June to July at the moment stands at 4 minutes. That’s fairly important, nevertheless it most likely gained’t final. Digging deeper into the information, final July began equally sluggish–particularly as contrasted with June. Nevertheless, wait occasions elevated within the closing two weeks of the month, with the final week and into early August seeing a slight spike.
Final yr, July was 2 minutes slower than June and August was 2 minutes slower than July. That’s typical seasonality, and we should always anticipate a repeat of that. What we should always not count on is October to be the slowest month of the yr once more–that was depressed because of the aforementioned hurricanes.
With wait occasions knowledge out of the way in which, let’s discuss attainable theories as to why July 2025 hasn’t been busy at Walt Disney World…
Residual DAS Affect
Disney overhauled Incapacity Entry Service (DAS) at Walt Disney World final yr, with modifications taking impact on Might 20, 2024. In response to the corporate, the modifications had been due largely to abuse, misuse, and proliferation of this system’s use–with issuances of DAS tripling from 2019 to final yr. (See Incapacity Entry Service (DAS) Modifications at Walt Disney World FAQ.)
We’ve written loads in regards to the affect of the DAS modifications on wait occasions at Walt Disney World. Most not too long ago simply final month in Is Lightning Lane Multi Move Nonetheless “Price It” at Disney World? Certainly one of our details with this has been that standby strains are shorter and quicker shifting, with wait occasions being decrease year-over-year as a direct results of the DAS crackdown. Even when attendance is precisely the identical, crowd ranges (as mirrored in wait occasions) could be decrease than the identical dates final yr because of this.
On condition that, I’m probably not certain how I missed this as a possible rationalization final time. In all probability as a result of it’s been virtually 14 months for the reason that modifications?! Regardless, the prolonged DAS eligibility interval means year-over-year crowd comparisons are nonetheless exhibiting residual results of the DAS modifications in June and July; it gained’t be till August that the DAS modifications are absolutely ‘labored by way of’ the system and never skewing YoY stats. That is nonetheless an enormous one, albeit to not the identical extent because it was in Might or earlier.
Altering Journey Preferences
The financial system is one thing that inevitably comes up within the feedback to posts like this, and we beforehand identified how Disney’s CFO mentioned they have to be “sensible about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place customers are “feeling stress.” Because of this, the corporate has held pricing regular and even supplied extra reductions, whereas concentrating worth will increase amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates.
Past that, it’s been the case for some time that not each American is experiencing the identical financial system. There are conflicting statistics which have befuddled economists in terms of sturdy client spending, which they’ve simply kind of hand waved away as YOLO spending, or attributed to customers saying one factor however behaving in another way.
None of that basically issues right here, as there’s key knowledge that tells a reasonably conclusive story. The TSA reported screening almost 3.1 million vacationers on Sunday, June 22, marking the only busiest day within the company’s historical past. June 27 and June 29 now rank because the seventh and eighth busiest days respectively in TSA historical past, pushing 2025 to assert six of the company’s high 10 busiest days on report. Quantity didn’t decelerate over Independence Day, because the TSA screened an estimated 18.5 million passengers over the vacation interval.
The underside line is that no matter points would possibly exist with the U.S. financial system, the American client continues to be spending freely and going locations for summer time trip. It’s definitely not impacting journey as a complete, though it might have an effect on what customers are doing as soon as arriving at their locations. (MCO’s quantity really is down year-over-year, however nonetheless effectively above 2019–however the airport added a brand new terminal, so it’s not precisely apples to apples.)
One method to reconcile all of that is altering journey preferences. This was touched upon within the feedback to the earlier put up in regards to the summer time slowdown, however bears emphasizing right here. It’s probably that Individuals in increased earnings brackets are avoiding theme parks in the course of the hotter months as a result of they’re much less satisfying and there’s higher consciousness of this.
In different phrases, even aggressive reductions are usually not sufficient to entice the higher center class and above to go to Walt Disney World in the course of the summer time, as a result of pricing isn’t what’s preserving them away within the first place. Not solely this, however extra mobility and options have made cruises and worldwide journeys extra fashionable amongst prosperous Individuals.
On the different finish of the spectrum, there’s the nice outside. We reside comparatively near the seaside, and our Independence Day weekend traditions are doing Disneyland and one of many seaside cities. Site visitors and congestion has gotten progressively worse in these places, to the purpose that over-tourism is changing into an extremely sizzling subject amongst locals. This July is busier than I’ve ever seen it on the seaside, and I’d’ve mentioned the identical factor about final yr.
Though we don’t have firsthand expertise with state and U.S. Nationwide Parks this summer time, I’ve heard related tales there amongst pals–with larger crowds and extra competitors for park reservations (hardly distinctive to Walt Disney World–you want a reservation to see timber now, too!)
It’s unclear to me whether or not that is American customers “buying and selling down” for cheaper summer time holidays, or just a matter of individuals going the place it’s cooler. We did Disneyland and the seaside on back-to-back days, and the coast was about 10 levels cooler than the parks–and Disneyland isn’t almost as sizzling as Walt Disney World.
Annual Move Blockouts
As you would possibly recall, this pattern actually began in 2023 when early July was downright useless at Walt Disney World. It was such a sizzling subject that it drew a proof from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a complete and unseasonably unhealthy climate. He wasn’t improper…however he additionally wasn’t fully right.
The massive “downside” was that Walt Disney World bought overly-aggressive with ticket blockouts, with each most Annual Passholders and those that bought low cost Florida resident tickets and others prevented from visiting the parks over Independence Day. We all know these are the first causes for the slowdown then, as a result of the exhaustion of pent-up demand and sizzling summer time climate weren’t simply confined to these particular dates when crowd ranges plummeted–they had been throughout the board dynamics.
We’ve since drawn consideration to Annual Move blockouts as a predictor of crowds on a number of events. Principally, each time each the Pixie Move and the Pirate Move–two inexpensive admission choices for locals–are blocked out, you possibly can count on native turnout to be depressed. And after the blockouts raise, there’s often localized (get it?) pent-up demand. The massive distinction between summer time and different occasions of yr when this occurs is that there are sometimes sufficient out-of-state vacationers to offset the blockouts throughout peak vacation weeks. Not a lot in the summertime.
Our sturdy suspicion is that there’s a disproportionate variety of Pirate and Pixie Mud Annual Passes in circulation, largely as a result of they’re the most affordable choices. On the very least, increased visitor-volume locals usually tend to have these APs, in order that they skew crowds greater than the opposite passes. Walt Disney World doesn’t launch statistical breakdowns of its AP inhabitants, so that is solely principle.
Nevertheless, it’s additionally corroborated by crowds. At any time when these passes are blocked out past their regular weekends, it exhibits up in wait occasions knowledge. We’ve additionally seen this forward of massive spring break blockouts, as locals flood the parks earlier than and after their blockout intervals versus the ‘peak’ week of spring break, which is blocked.
There are numerous different examples like this, with a rush of locals “getting their Disney repair” earlier than a blockout after which decrease crowds throughout it. It additionally occurs yearly in January when the blockouts raise, and occurred final yr for Labor Day. This rationalization is well-supported by three years of information of Independence Day, which is why crowds had been a lot decrease July 2-6, 2025. Although TSA knowledge exhibits that to be a peak journey time, it wasn’t sufficient to offset overly aggressive blockouts of locals.
In the end, my sturdy suspicion is that the final issue–Annual Passes–is the end result determinative one in terms of July 2-6, 2025 having unprecedentedly low crowd ranges. That for those who took the precise vacationer attendance of Independence Day weekend and added the common Annual Passholder attendance for this summer time, the quantity would come out trying pretty near regular Summer time 2025 days at Walt Disney World.
However once more, “regular” by Summer time 2025 requirements continues to be a shadow of what issues had been like earlier than 2016. Even after that, Independence Day continued to be very busy at Walt Disney World for no less than a few years. It was not a peak season vacation like Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Yr’s Eve, and many others., nevertheless it additionally wasn’t average–like Memorial Day or Labor Day. It additionally doesn’t clarify why different dates this month–reminiscent of July 12, 2025–have had ~26 minute common wait occasions and 1/10 crowd ranges.
It’ll be fascinating to see whether or not there’s a bounce-back in crowds in the direction of the top of this month and in early August. Often, there’s a second spike on the finish of July, which we’ve attributed to ‘final hurrah’ summer time vacationers taking journeys earlier than college goes again into session. That’s more likely to occur, however our expectation continues to be that July 2025 might be slower than June, and August 2025 might be slower than July. September and October are the massive wildcards–the latter is nearly sure to see a year-over-year bounceback, however September might as soon as once more reclaim the crown because the slowest month of the yr.
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Your Ideas
Why do you suppose month-to-date July 2025 crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Have been you within the parks over Independence Day or within the week-plus since? What has been your expertise with wait occasions and congestion? Any observations about attendance tendencies in the course of the fall months that observe this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!