July 2025 is ending with a bang at Walt Disney World after initially beginning sluggish. Wait instances and crowd ranges are rising, a pattern that’s prone to proceed till low season and Halloween arrive subsequent month. This shares knowledge plus our on-the-ground observations, plus theories for the rise and why worldwide journey hasn’t been hit as onerous as anticipated.
Up till this level, July had been the slowest month of the 12 months thus far. That’s nonetheless true, however wait instances have rebounded considerably because the first couple weeks. If July finishes sturdy, it may surpass June. The decrease averages for July are nonetheless being dragged down by the start of the month, when the Independence Day vacation considerably underperformed for the third consecutive 12 months.
The primary week of July 2025 is the bottom of the year-to-date, with a 26 minute common and crowd degree of 1/10. This simply barely edged out mid-June (27 minutes, 1/10) for the bottom week of 2025. July 2-6 has been the slowest stretch of the month-to-date, with wait instances bottoming out at 21 minutes (1/10 crowds) throughout that stretch. Sunday, July 6, 2025 was the deadest day of the whole 12 months up to now. Since these low lows, wait instances have rebounded. Summer season appears to be like prefer it’s going to complete sturdy because of “final hurrah” journey…
Except for a pair weeks, summer time has been sluggish–generally very sluggish–up till this level. And simply to be clear, what we’ve skilled and noticed is nothing even approaching really busy. It’s not even above-average crowd ranges. It’s simply the busier, in relative phrases, than summer time has been up till now. Which, once more, is pretty sluggish.
Final month, we coated a number of the causes for this dynamic in Why Summer season is the New Low Crowds Season at Disney World. Right here’s an inventory of fast hits for individuals who need the rundown:
- Epic Universe
- Worldwide Journey Pullback
- Financial Uncertainty
- Starlight Delays
- Shifting Schedules
- Excessive Warmth & Humidity
- Shorter Park Hours
- No Particular Occasions/Food plan EPCOT
- Minimal Mitigation
- Annual Move Blockouts
Not all of these potential theories had been equally essential. As mentioned there, some truly had a reasonably negligible influence, or an outsized one in fan perceptions. Others had been extra vital, and had been years-running tendencies.
You would possibly discover that some fan favourite explanations will not be talked about, reminiscent of increased prices. This isn’t to say Walt Disney World doesn’t have a pricing drawback that’s resulted in some company balking at holidays. It does.
As we’ve mentioned in numerous posts, together with Is Walt Disney World Too Costly for Center Class People? However pricing doesn’t clarify why summer time, particularly, continues to see its year-over-year wait instances lower.
Anyway, let’s flip to the month-to-date wait instances knowledge for July 2025, courtesy of thrill-data (ditto the above stats)…
Even with a second-half rebound, July has nonetheless been the slowest month of 2025 up to now, with a mean wait time of 29 minutes and a pair of/10 crowd degree. Previous to this month, the slowest month of the 12 months was final month, when June had a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of three/10. Within the final 12 months, the one slower months have been final September and October, which had hurricane scares.
Whereas July 2025 as a complete nonetheless has the bottom crowd ranges of the final year-plus, this week is presently the busiest spring April! Once more, that is relative phrases, as no dates throughout shoulder season and summer time have had heavy crowds. Not solely that, however the week isn’t over but and weekend knowledge isn’t included. However, this week has a mean of 34 minutes for a crowd degree of 4/10.
As at all times, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 120+ minutes, as we’ve noticed on just a few events) are potential for the headliners at peak instances. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights. There have additionally been loads of days which have been busier than that common.
What’s maybe most notable about that is that the numbers hold climbing. Usually, we’d count on Monday and Tuesday to be the busiest days of the week, however wait instances have gotten progressively increased. All of that indicators to us that this could be the beginning of “final hurrah” summer time journey.
This isn’t vastly shocking. On the contrary, it’s anticipated. There are solely two weeks throughout June and July on our listing of the Worst Weeks at Walt Disney World in 2025-2026, which we confer with as the dual peaks of summer time.
One is across the midway level in June, and one which we’ve described as a “final hurrah” as vacationers scramble to take journeys earlier than faculty going again into session. These peaks aren’t utterly constant, however have roughly been the top of June and finish of July, with Mondays being particularly unhealthy.
Our earlier prediction was that July 21-28, 2025 could be the peak of “final hurrah” journey. Primarily based on what we’re presently seeing, it’ll most likely be extra like July 23 to August 1, 2025. These predictions had been made earlier than Starlight had its debut date set, and I may see some households scrambling to plan journeys after the preliminary rush of the brand new parade, however whereas the largest reductions are nonetheless in impact.
Wait instances knowledge doesn’t inform the total story of ‘appears like’ crowds as a result of persons are staking out prime Starlight evening parade spots or for Fortunately Ever After fireworks. This can be a story that’ll repeat itself over the approaching months at Magic Kingdom within the evenings as soon as Starlight debuts–huge congestion alongside the parade route, however walk-on rides.
If something, Starlight has flipped the script to an extent. The gang ranges are based mostly on wait instances knowledge, and there’s no such knowledge for parade or fireworks viewing. On the contrary, leisure sometimes has the impact of pulling folks away from rides, which is a dynamic we’ve seen during the last week. So there’s extra congestion on the entrance of the park, as Tomorrowland and Fantasyland hole out and people headliners have decrease wait instances.
Setting apart evenings in Magic Kingdom, I wouldn’t say there have been many surprises with appears like crowds versus wait instances. I’ve spent lots of time within the parks during the last week, and crowds had been about as anticipated. Final weekend was noticeably slower than this week, which is mirrored within the knowledge.
One wrinkle we’ve been battling is worldwide attendance. Throughout the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen a success to worldwide visitation (causes for that are mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays). Johnston indicated that Walt Disney World and Disneyland have seen roughly 1% to 1.5% declines of worldwide attendance. Nonetheless, that was earlier than the worst of the commerce tensions would’ve had an influence.
Go to Orlando and the Vacationer Growth Council in Orange County have painted an much more bleak image, indicating a drop of round 8% for worldwide tourism as a complete to Central Florida. Airways and different companies have likewise proven a reasonably vital drop, particularly from Canada and Europe, the place inbound numbers are down by double-digit percentages.
Then there’s the Higher Orlando Aviation Authority, which has launched stats for MCO by Might, which confirmed worldwide passenger site visitors continues to be up 9.3%, whereas home passenger site visitors is down 4.2% (for a mixed lower of two.6%). Worldwide site visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier file from the summer time of 2019.
It’s unimaginable to reconcile all of this, however I’m inclined to present probably the most weight to Disney’s personal numbers and passenger stats from MCO, since Go to Orlando doesn’t share its methodology, and people numbers are at all times accompanied by quotes that lead me to consider it’s a survey of journey brokers or one thing much less scientific.
Regardless, I now have my very own less-scientific concept: South American tour teams are propping up Walt Disney World’s worldwide numbers.
Over the course of the final week-plus, I’ve seen extra South American tour teams than at any level within the final decade. I do know, I do know: anecdotes will not be knowledge. There’s at all times the chance of overweighting a visual phenomenon. In reality, we warn in opposition to falling into this ‘lure’ in the case of cheer and dance teams, which stand out within the parks regardless of not shifting the needle a lot on total crowd ranges.
It’s the same story with South American tour teams. Not solely are they giant in dimension, however they stand out because of neon shirts and flags. And to be very clear, I’m not suggesting that these tour teams are having a huge effect on total crowd ranges. They aren’t. However I do suppose they’re most likely a sufficiently significant enhance to attendance to offset the losses from Canada and Europe. That’s actually the right solution to sq. all of this; whereas I’ve heard noticeably fewer Canadian and European company, there was an equally noticeable uptick in South American teams.
For what it’s price, this many South American tour teams isn’t traditionally irregular. There was a time when it felt like Brazilian tour teams had been the dominant demographic throughout summers at Walt Disney World. This was particularly pronounced popping out of the Nice Recession up till 2014, earlier than the Brazilian financial disaster however a dent in tour group numbers.
With Brazil’s economic system surging, tour teams are as soon as once more showing in increased volumes. This additionally isn’t a new-for-2025 pattern; I first seen tour teams returning in full pressure final winter. But it surely appears like they’re again in even fuller pressure this summer time, with extra vibrant baggage, flags, and shirts.
Though I haven’t dug deep into this because it simply appeared on my radar, I’d hazard a guess that political tensions are much less related with South America bookings than Canada or Europe (not less than, reservations which are already locked in–new strife has emerged within the final couple of weeks). There’s additionally the wildcard of no matter Walt Disney World is doing to entice South American tour teams. It’s potential that Disney has gotten extra aggressive with advertising and marketing or packages to this demographic; that’s an entire blind spot for us.
After all, these are simply theories. However this strikes me as one of the simplest ways to reconcile MCO’s increased worldwide passenger quantity with every part else. Walt Disney World seeing an natural uptick in South American guests passes the scent check for me, as does focusing on a marketplace for summer time journey that’s presumably extra tolerant of Florida warmth and humidity.
Past that, my greatest statement has been increased crowds very first thing within the morning adopted by a noon lull and a night spike. None of that is in the slightest degree shocking, as there have been a number of warmth advisory days throughout that stretch with mid to higher 90s excessive temperatures and triple-digit appears like readings.
That is one thing we’ve seen repeatedly throughout the summer time months over the previous few years. Company arrive early to beat the warmth, making Early Entry and common rope drop comparatively worse than throughout the winter, spring, and fall months. I did a number of days of area testing, and all of this performed out because it usually does, with the unhealthy luck of experience downtime and delayed openings exacerbating waits each morning for me.
The opposite statement I’d add is that the swimming pools I walked previous had been packed (largely monorail loop, Crescent Lake, plus Pop Century–didn’t cease by anyplace else). Not simply throughout the center of the day, however just about all day. I had a pool view room on the Poly, and was shocked by simply how busy it was in any respect hours. That is very anecdotal, however it tracks with what we’ve seen in latest summers. My assumption is that company are buying fewer park days resulting from rising ticket prices, and are additionally doing extra pool time to beat the warmth. (Sorry, I can not converse to water parks.)
There’s the same dynamic later within the day, with late afternoons and evenings being worse. This was very true this week throughout Prolonged Night Hours at EPCOT, which had been far worse than dates this winter and spring when daytime crowds had been truly increased.
Once more, that is completely regular. We’ve seen time and time once more that Prolonged Night Hours nights are worse throughout the summer time. There’s proportionally increased uptake as extra eligible company attempt to beat the warmth. Among the worst ExEH nights are from June by August, surpassed solely by the height weeks of the 12 months (Thanksgiving, Christmas, NYE, Presidents Day, Easter, and many others). This at all times occurs, and is regardless of below-average daytime crowds.
This 12 months, it doesn’t assist that ExEH moved to Animal Kingdom on Wednesday, which most likely pushes extra company to benefit from ExEH at EPCOT. I didn’t even hassle with the perk at DAK because it nonetheless ends so early. I did, nevertheless, do dinner at Tiffins the earlier evening and exited 90 minutes after park closing…to an empty park earlier than sundown. I think Prolonged Night Hours supplied a reasonably related vibe the next evening.
In the end, it’s unlikely that July 2025 will catch as much as June when it comes to total crowd degree and wait time common with lower than per week left within the month. However the hole is closing and it’s undoubtedly ending sturdy; it’s simply that the primary half of July continues to be dragging down the general numbers. Every week since Independence Day has been progressively busier, culminating within the present week being the busiest at Walt Disney World since April.
I wouldn’t wager in opposition to subsequent week being even busier. A minimum of, the primary half of the week, which may be the busiest 3-5 day stretch at Walt Disney World since Easter week. To be abundantly clear, it’s most likely not going to be really packed–we’re nonetheless speaking crowd ranges and wait instances which are in average to above-average territory.
My very own notion of crowds has been that they’re pretty low throughout the center of the day and largely manageable even for Early Entry/rope drop and in evenings, however generally barely shocking on the busy aspect. It’s not as if the parks are out of the blue slammed–even Most important Road forward of Starlight and Fortunately Ever After has been higher than I anticipated, with the 11 pm parade efficiency being downright good. I used to be pleasantly shocked by this, and count on the worst continues to be to come back from October by December.
Talking of forward-looking crowds, our expectation is that crowds stay elevated (relative to earlier this summer time) by Monday, August 11, 2025. That’s the primary day of college for a lot of Central Florida districts (and past), which suggests the “final hurrah” will proceed for locals within the two weeks previous to then, in addition to for some vacationers (largely Southern states inside driving distance). That is hardly a daring prediction–it’s additionally a pattern we’ve seen play out within the final couple of years.
After that, the large query might be simply how low low season crowds drop from mid-August by mid-to-late September. Will any weeks or days “beat” the Independence Day lull? My guess is that they may, setting new data for the bottom dates at Walt Disney World in 2025. Late September and October are the larger wildcards–the latter is nearly sure to see a year-over-year bounceback, however September may as soon as once more reclaim the crown because the slowest month of the 12 months.
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Your Ideas
Have you ever visited Walt Disney World within the second half of July 2025? What has been your notion of wait instances and crowds? Has it been busier than you anticipated within the mornings and evenings? Slower noon? Ideas on Most important Road congestion since Starlight debuted? What has been your expertise with WDW crowds? Any observations about attendance tendencies throughout the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!