Walt Disney World is having a gradual summer season. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are lifeless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nonetheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait occasions are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to drag new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and provide our theories for the summer season slowdown.
The one factor summer season hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first revealed: Summer time Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the traditional knowledge that Memorial Day by Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer season crowds weren’t as unhealthy as up to now. It provided a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Final yr, we adopted that up with Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. If you would like a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Hunch, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this yr is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease up to now in Summer time 2025.
You may discover that the titles of those posts have ‘advanced’ over time. The primary was that summer season shouldn’t be peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer season is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a few decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with at present makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because total Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even method its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)
The truth is, Summer time 2025 has been so gradual up to now that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. Once I first began engaged on this, there was a powerful case to be made that this summer season was proving to be the low season. The final week solid doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the fact that August and September will likely be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?
From my perspective, the reply is not any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer season is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose that means. So as a substitute we’ll follow cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer season has develop into. It’s positively not peak season, nevertheless it additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.
Though June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll doubtless be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as a complete) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by greater highs to stability out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the best way of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we should always name summer season the “persistently uncomfortable season,” which is obscure but 100% correct.
Earlier than we focus on the potential explanations for why summer season is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait occasions. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.
June 2025 Crowds
June has been the slowest month of the yr up to now, with a median wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of two/10. As at all times, that’s an common, which nonetheless signifies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are potential for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights.
There have additionally been loads of days which were busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. In contrast, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait occasions bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.
To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer season, it’s price stating that at the same time as June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges up to now in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two really ‘lifeless’ days. The truth is, if you happen to zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final yr. There have been many dates from final August by December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a task in September and October).
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. It is a development that’s a number of years operating, however is amplified throughout summer season and minimized as soon as Celebration Season begins. As a complete, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
If you happen to’re attempting to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer season, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer season journey, and you’ll in all probability count on one thing comparable in June 2026. Aside from that, probably not a ton that’s price speaking about. Summer time is the least attention-grabbing season for crowds because it tends to be essentially the most constant.
Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s, or in Winter 2026.
Principally, any idea that might be contradicted by greater crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. greater costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining popularity). This may increasingly appear apparent, nevertheless it’s however mandatory as a result of discussing attendance has develop into a loaded situation with many followers who need to see their very own narratives bolstered. If you happen to consider that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s definitely your prerogative, however X or Y as a proof form of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’ll, later this yr.
With that out of the best way, let’s discuss theories as to why summer season is slower now than it was again within the day…
Epic Universe
We’d as properly begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I consider it’s the #1 clarification for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However reasonably, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”
My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no web affect on summer season crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some affect on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this yr. That’s unquestionably occurring. Nonetheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando because of Epic Universe and in addition visiting Walt Disney World consequently (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).
It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which aspect is “successful,” as a result of we’ve got information. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.
On a median day this summer season, Epic Universe is greeting fewer friends than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait occasions typically mirror excessive attendance, they will additionally mirror low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe up to now: excessive wait occasions because of low throughput masking low attendance (bought all that?!).
We will additionally look to attend occasions information for Common Orlando. The resort as a complete is about on par with final yr’s numbers, however if you happen to take a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer season), they’re down in Summer time 2025 versus final yr. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.
Worldwide Journey
Through the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen successful to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).
By way of the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new growth), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for latest worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an affect” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.
What Disney expects going ahead is one thing much like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, information exhibits that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting the same dynamic from Europe.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal information reinforces), worldwide vacationers will not be that important of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed dwelling, it might be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s occurring. It’s a downtick of some proportion factors, at most.
It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Larger Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, they usually’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger site visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger site visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month complete stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.
Worldwide site visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier document from the summer season of 2019, with a median of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. In fact, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was practically 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can inform you that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!
Financial Uncertainty
Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they should be “good about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place shoppers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their latest earnings calls.)
Johnston stated that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase had been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate desires to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of occasions.”
All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer season. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you would get the least expensive Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since no less than 2019. That’s form of loopy if you happen to notice how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. It is a development we count on to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting costlier and summer season additional reducing in 2026 and past.
On the similar time, we’ve repeatedly cited client confidence, financial anxiousness, ongoing inflation, Individuals being squeezed from each route, and extra as explanation why Walt Disney World may see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we hold listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American client is and the way “strong” spending stays.
It could appear that individuals categorical worry, anxiousness, and issues when surveyed about these items, however then behave otherwise. (The truth is, survey information additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader financial system versus their very own funds–and has been for just a few years.) In different phrases, it is a non-factor…for now?
Starlight Delays
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Night time Parade and/or Take a look at Observe opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Hunch of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of friends postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor had been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They had been, primarily, non-factors. That is really an attention-grabbing matter in and of itself (one in all my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given friends chilly ft about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.
Actually, I wouldn’t be stunned Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 because of Epic Universe (friends “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they’ll from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t assume the (optimistic) Epic impact will likely be all that significant.
Shifting Schedules
Again after we first tackled this matter in 2017, shifting schedules was provided as one clarification–extra faculties switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden incidence that started in the previous couple of years. College calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.
I’m way more receptive to this clarification now. The truth is, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that in all probability isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer time is essentially the most handy time for many households to go to because of college breaks. That is the rationale for summer season being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer season has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very motive.
Nonetheless, we might posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from increasingly readers who do precisely this. We will’t again it up with arduous stats, nevertheless it passes the scent check and appears extremely believable to us.
Equally as necessary given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many Individuals have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable possibility for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.
As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in quite a lot of locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates had been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this one of the best clarification, in our view, because it exhibits the redistribution of attendance in motion.
Excessive Warmth & Humidity
Summer time being unbearably scorching and humid in Central Florida shouldn’t be a latest growth, so this shouldn’t be a year-over-year non-factor. Nonetheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “appears like” temperatures properly above 100º.
In accordance with the corporate, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a scorching matter a pair years in the past that it drew a proof from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand and unseasonably unhealthy climate, even by summer season in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on just a few extra events.
It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first motive for decrease attendance. Provided that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this clarification strikes us as believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer time 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.
In the case of climate, the massive wild card now could be consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down obstacles, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of assorted books and assets is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other solely to see your favourite vlogger sweat their manner round World Showcase. The previous you is perhaps extra prone to dismiss, questioning simply how unhealthy it could possibly be. The latter is way more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of college, and there’s a situation the place households have elevated data coupled with decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip college may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
This extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep dwelling when the forecast turns unseasonably scorching, humid or wet. A few of them may bear the climate if Disney offers them a motive to take action, as was once the case with summer season celebrations. That hasn’t been true for just a few years, although. On high of that, I might hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants shouldn’t be suited to summer season climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning in the course of the summer season months (disproportionate to native Floridians).
This comfort-seeking habits additionally explains why appears like crowds or congestion are decrease in the course of the summer season. Whereas within the winter friends may wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly may imply that wait occasions are elevated relative to attendance in the course of the summer season months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks typically look lifeless from June by September even when the wait occasions don’t at all times mirror that.
Shorter Hours
I really feel like a damaged document about this, however again after we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours had been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each night time, with night Additional Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.
Having the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer season warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We may begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a straightforward approach to mitigate the excessive warmth.
Fortunately, Starlight will convey again these 11 pm closings, nevertheless it’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is presently open for an hour after sundown. There’s a motive why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra common in the course of the summer season months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks like a vicious cycle for summer season park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.
No Particular Occasions
Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer season numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can not schedule runDisney races or out of doors ESPN Vast World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s doubtless that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees the same summer season slowdown.
It’s as soon as once more Food regimen EPCOT in the course of the summer season, with that being telegraphed far prematurely for 2025. (Final yr, no less than there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there may be GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer time because the summer season push, however that’s largely advertising. It’s not just like the summer season ‘spectaculars’ of previous, and I can not think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer time. (The reductions are a distinct story.)
All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new pageant at EPCOT or a revival of Summer time Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer season an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Possibly we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.
Minimal Mitigation
I additionally really feel like a damaged document about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its latest expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the yr. There’s little shade providing a approach to escape the warmth or summer season showers.
It’s actually mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely performed nothing when it comes to mitigation measures, however they’ve as a substitute actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The preferred and latest areas of the parks–the locations individuals spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable in the course of the summer season has doubtless contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less snug at Walt Disney World.
There are doubtless different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer season attendance has been down. Different components is perhaps at play, and in mixture might have a noticeable affect, however I feel these variables can be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
Finally, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average up to now in Summer time 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a latest growth. Summer time being slower was the new-normal for just a few years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait occasions we’re presently seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since no less than 2019 may reverse the development. It’ll be attention-grabbing to see which new levers they pull for 2026.
Earlier than you learn all of this and assume that summer season abruptly appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. If you happen to beforehand dominated out a summer season trip to Walt Disney World, contemplate the chance that you just did so for good motive. I’m not saying you’ll have a foul time–as we regularly say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is healthier than an ideal day at dwelling.” That’s true as at all times.
What I’ll say is that no matter “features” you’ll expertise throughout summer season at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions will likely be worn out by subjectively inferior every thing else. If you happen to pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation. I might take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular occurring. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by the entire above, it might appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about resorts on our Walt Disney World Accommodations Opinions web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Opinions. To economize on tickets or decide which sort to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a singular take a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Journey Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, one of the best place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every thing you’ll want to know!
Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer season crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree solely, and assume it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits in the course of the fall months that observe this summer season dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions beneath within the feedback!